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Signal Check

Solar Disruptions

Solar Cycle 25 is peaking. Big storms can disrupt satellites, radio, GPS, and sometimes degrade services. A century-class hit would be serious, but there is no official forecast calling for a guaranteed weeks-long internet blackout.

Solar Disruptions

“Internet apocalypse” during solar maximum? What the data actually says

Quick Take: The Sun is peaking in activity during Solar Cycle 25. Big storms like the G5 event in May 2024 can disrupt satellites, radio, GPS, and sometimes degrade services like Starlink. A worst case Carrington-scale hit could damage grid equipment and some undersea cable repeaters, but there is no official forecast calling for a guaranteed weeks-long internet blackout. Prepare with receipts, not panic. Snopes+3NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center+3Wikipedia+3

What’s happening

  • Solar peak timing: NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center places the Cycle 25 peak roughly around 2024–2025, with a broad window through early 2026. More flares and CMEs means more storm chances. NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center+1
  • Recent reality check: The May 2024 G5 storm produced auroras at low latitudes, HF radio issues, and “degraded service” for Starlink. Power grid and satellite operators took protective actions and kept most systems online. Wikipedia+2PAC World+2
  • Where the “internet apocalypse” meme came from: A 2021 research paper explored how extreme geomagnetic storms could stress undersea cable repeaters and create trans-ocean connectivity losses. It was a scenario study, not a prediction. Some viral posts misreport it as a current NASA warning. ACM Digital Library+2UCI Bren School of ICS+2

Why this matters

  • We are more connected than in 1989 or 2003, so solar storms now carry higher systemic risk for satellites, timing services, aviation routes, and long power lines. Early warnings let operators place satellites in safe modes and reconfigure grids to ride out the hit. NASA Science+1

What we know vs what we do not

We know

  • NOAA uses a G-scale (G1–G5). May 2024 reached G5 and was the strongest since 1989. Still, impacts were mostly temporary service disruptions and auroras, not weeks of blackout. Wikipedia
  • Carrington-class storms are rare. NOAA estimates events half that size happen about every few decades; Carrington-scale is closer to centuries. NOAA Satellite and Information Service

We do not know

  • The exact frequency of Carrington-level strikes in the modern era, or how a direct hit would cascade across today’s mixed satellite and fiber systems. Modeling is improving, but uncertainty remains. Planetary Society

What to watch next

  • SWPC alerts and watches for incoming CMEs; look for “G3–G5” watches and Kp 7–9.
  • Utility and satellite ops advisories during storm windows. Expect route changes for polar flights, GNSS jitter, and occasional satellite safe modes. NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center

Pushback and cautions

  • Be careful with viral “NASA warns of week-long outage” posts. NASA explains storm physics and risks but has not issued blanket blackout predictions. Snopes has a good debunk. NASA Science+1
  • The “internet apocalypse” paper is useful for planning, not a forecast. It highlights undersea repeater vulnerabilities so operators can harden them. ACM Digital Library+1

What if

What if a Carrington-class CME did score a direct hit?

  • Expect widespread auroras, satellite anomalies, GNSS errors, degraded HF and VHF comms, and potential transformer damage on some long power lines. Intercontinental links could fragment if multiple undersea repeater chains fault at once. Recovery would depend on spare parts, rerouting, and how quickly operators shed load and isolate faults. It would be disruptive, not the end of the internet. NOAA Satellite and Information Service+1

How to track storms like a pro

  • Watch NOAA SWPC dashboards for Kp, G-scale alerts, and CME arrival estimates.
  • Follow reputable updates from NASA Heliophysics and national meteorological services for context, not hype. NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center+1

The receipts

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